Internet Issue

We are experiencing an Internet outage this morning. Stay tuned for
further updates.

Blessings
CT

Sent from my iPhone

Emini Futures Trading - Friday November 6th, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)($ES)($INX)

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%  by Mac Slavo

Friday’s unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics is anything but a green shoot. The official U-3 unemployment number is 10.2%. The broader and more comprehensive official unemployment number, the U-6, is at 17.5%. The U-6 counts all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, and all the people who dropped off unemployment benefits because their unemployment benefits ran out. John Williams at Shadowstats.com suggests that real unemployment is actually running at 22%, which, by our calculation, is approaching Great Depression unemployment numbers... More »

 

How Warren Buffett Is Smarter than the G20 by The Baseline Scenario

By Simon Johnson

The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors are meeting today in St. Andrews, talking about the data they will need to look at in order to monitor each other’s economic performance and sustain growth (seriously).

The underlying idea is that if you talk long enough about the US current account deficit and the Chinese surplus, stuff happens and the imbalances will take care of themselves – or move on to take another form.

Warren Buffett seems to agree.... More »

 

Global Markets in Review: Is the Risk Trade Back On? by Prieur du Plessis

“Words from the Wise” this week comes to you in a shortened format as I am about to leave Cape Town for a visit to the colder environs of Switzerland and Slovenia.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained its extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy following its meeting on Wednesday. The communiqué had no surprises and said that the committee expected to keep the fed funds rate target in the 0-0.25% range “for an extended period”. As expected, the European... More »

 

U.S.: Speculation Prior to Obama's Visit to Asia

November 7, 2009 1502 GMT

Several rumors about U.S.-Asian relations will make U.S. President Barack Obama's trip to Asia an interesting one. [more]

 

 

 

S&P 500 Emini Price Action Video / StackTrade Webinar and Free Trial

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)($INX)




Stack Trade Presents....

Live Market Trading Demonstration Featuring Stack Trade Indicators. Please join us Friday at 9:30 am EST for a 1 hour webinar featuring our indicators in a LIVE market environment! These proprietary indicators were developed by day-traders for day-traders and have been honed specifically for trading e-mini stock index futures such as the ES. In this webinar, the developers of Stack Trade will explain how these signals were developed and how they are used to create trade set-ups following the flow of the market.   Participate via live Webcast. Friday, November 6, 2009 9:30 a.m EST REGISTRATION LINK to attend this free web-event.

Check Us Out On YouTube!  Stack Trade has combined two separate videos. The first explaining the Price Action video and the second video is a live trade video using the Price Action setup. Here's the link to access the video Price Action Video

Special Offer! 

Try Our Indicators and Chat Room for One Week Free!

All attendees of the Friday November 6th Stack Trade webinar will receive a one week Free Trial of our indicators and access to the Stack Trade Chat Room where you will be guided through the setups in real time! 

Click the Free Trial link to sign up for your week trial!

Get 2 Extra Days If You Digg It! 

We will offer you an additional 2 free day of indicators and access to the Stack Trade chat room for submitting your feedback to Michael's video located on Digg It.

Click the Video link and follow the simple directions to receive your 2 additional days free.

If you have already taken a Free Trial in the past, identify yourself as a CFRN Listener and Michael has agreed to allow you to take another FREE TRIAL! 

Emini Futures Trading - Page Trader Silver Forecast / Thursday November 5th, 2009

(QQQQ)(USV)(SPY)(SLV)(DBS)

On today's show we discuss a Silver Forecast made by Page Trader in May of 2001.

May 2001

For the first time since I began trading in 1990, silver is in an important bullish position. This position is composed of several  factors:

1. Approximately 20 years ago, the silver market was cornered by the Hunt brothers. Corners are not random events. A successful corner occurs only after the expiration of critical time/price cycles.
2. There are 2 important prices in silver connected with both the 20^th year, and the year 2001; these are 4.24, and more importantly, 3.86 per ounce.
3. Silver declined to 4.27 in March and April 2001 (monthly chart), within 3 cents of 4.24.

I believe the recent swing down to 4.27 is a significant early confirmation of large time cycles culminating. The chance to own silver at 4.24 or lower may be gone already. But because the time element is large (yearly), and ½ of year 2001 remains, there still is ample opportunity. Here is my plan: 

1.  BUY:  I intend on buying silver futures at or around 3.86 per ounce, and taking delivery of the metal through warehouse receipt.  SELL: Any monthly close below 3.69 per ounce and I will return the silver to market.

2. BUY: If year 2001 closes above 4.24 without having touched 3.86, I will buy silver at or around 4.24 per ounce and take delivery. SELL: Any monthly close below 4.14 per ounce, and I will return the silver to market. 

3. Silver is now at 4.56 per ounce. You will receive an update on any decline to 4.24 prior to end of 2001. 

This is a long-term, multi year buy/hold position. We are buying at or around critical low levels, which may not be seen again for many years after an advance starts. Often, an important advance begins with prices immediately at  (apparently) high levels, making a commitment difficult then. That judgment is often wrong, as prices can go much higher when the time cycle indicates it. Owning silver at 4.24 or 3.86 places us already in the market when the surprise advance begins at “high” prices. I believe the potential upside in silver is extraordinary and worth serious consideration. 

It is important to trade with known, meaningful risk and exit when that risk is exceeded. This is true when buying the actual underlying commodity, as we plan to here, as well as futures. The risk outlined above is reasonable, more important, it is not arbitrary; it is based upon numbers which I am satisfied are important in silver. There are people who, after silver hit $50.00 an ounce in 1980, felt it was a bargain at $38.00. Others bought the metal at $25.00 per ounce, figuring ½ the high a great price. Because they were hopeful about future gains, and owned the actual metal, they could hold silver as long as necessary to await their profits. When silver continued to decline, they never took positions off with a reasonable loss. Now, 2 decades later, there is still $25.00 per ounce silver being held by the original buyers, or their relatives. Losers try to never take a loss, even a reasonable one. The same is true now, 20 years later. If we buy at 3.86 and the monthly closes below 3.69, we will exit with a reasonable loss because silver can go much lower and can stay lower for many years.

                                                            

                                                             Sincerely,

                                                             Pagetrader

"Nice Call David!"

Emini Futures Trading / S&P 500 (SPY) Video Alert - Wednesday November 04, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)($INX)

Pete Worden spells it out pretty clearly....

S&P 500 (SPY) Video Alert
I just finished this 5-minute video that takes you through daily and hourly charts of the SPY using MACD and Time Segmented Volume (TSV).

You can watch it now at FreeStockCharts.com. I believe the stock market has indeed entered into a full-fledged correction, which is likely to retrace a sizable portion of the advance from the March lows. However, I also believe the current bounce has more room left on the upside before the profit-taking once again begins. I explain in my video.

CFRN Weekly ES Chart

Emini Futures Trading - The Myths about Risk-to-Reward Ratio / Tuesday November 3rd, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(INDU)

Myths about Risk-to-Reward Ratio

Recently we sent out an e-mail report entitled "Are you using Risk Management?" In that report we touched on a number of principals regarding risk management that we believe every trader should apply to their trading. In this segment, we will address the principal of Risk-to-Reward Ratio, along with common misconceptions regarding this concept.

Classic Definition of Risk-to-Reward Ratio

The risk-to-reward ratio is simply a calculation of how much financial risk is involved in a trade versus how much profit is expected. This calculation is made prior to entering the trade. Risk/reward ratios provide an unemotional way of evaluating a trade to find opportunities where the potential reward outweighs the known risk by a certain amount. For example, a trade which risks 1 point with a profit target of 3 points would have a risk/reward ratio of 1 to 3 (1 point of risk versus 3 points of gain).

What are the Myths of Risk-to-Reward Ratios?

Many trading systems advertise impressive risk/reward ratios associated with their trades. The problem is that risk/reward ratios are entirely theoretical, by nature. The reality is that a trader can only know the risk in advance (how much you're willing to lose), but the potential reward can be known only after the fact, no matter how compelling the trading setup. One may speculate as to the amount of reward he believes the market will provide on a given trade, but this can not be known until the trade is complete. Therefore, it is virtually impossible to determine the true Risk-to-Reward Ratio before entering a trade.

One useful alternative to the Risk-to-Reward Ratio method is for the trader to simply establish a firm risk tolerance which would represent the maximum amount of points he/she is willing to risk for all trades, regardless of their projected reward (price target). So, for example, whether a trade was forecasting a 5 or 10 point target, the risk would remain the same. Messenger Pro utilizes such a strategy because this approach manages what can actually be known in advance, which again is the amount of risk taken. Messenger Pro never intentionally risks more than 1 1/2 points on any trade, in spite of its projected price target.

Another common myth which shows up repeatedly in the advertising of trading systems is the deceptive promise that a trader can risk a very small amount of money to capture a very large gain, and do so repeatedly. An example would be the promise that a trader can risk 1 point and repeatedly profit 10 points. This claim is pure fantasy, with rare exception. The reality is that risk and reward are 2 sides to the same coin. If you seek to capture larger gains, then it is naturally necessary to risk larger amounts of money.

You'll find this principle of balanced risk versus reward is not isolated to trading the markets. It shows up virtually everywhere. For example, throwing a basketball into the hoop when you are two feet away has less risk of failure and is dramatically easier to achieve than shooting from the half court line, where the risk of failure is much higher but so is the points reward.

In summary, it is important to understand that both risk and reward run together. With rare exception, larger gains require larger risk. Traders should establish a personal risk tolerance that is reasonable for their account size and trading objectives (short-term day trading, medium-term and longer-term trading). Avoid getting baited into trades with supposed superior risk/reward ratios. By observing these general guidelines the likelihood of producing consistent, positive results increases significantly.

Thank You,
Customer service
Toll Free: 888-231-4702
Outside US & Canada: 702-485-3934
"The Number 1 Futures Forecasting Service in the World!"

http://pagetrader.com 

Emini Futures Trading - Monday November 2nd, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(.SPX)($ES)

Emini Futures Trading / Prosperity for God's People - Friday October 30, 2009

(QQQQ)(DA)(SPY)($ES)(INDU)

The Weekly Chart posted on this blog is still in play. As far as we are concerned -  

Anticipate lower prices!

(scroll down to see the chart)


Arizona State Fair

Emini Futures Trading / Prosperity for God's People - Thursday October 29, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)($ES)($YM)

Emini Futures Trading / Prosperity for God's People - Wednesday October 28, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)($ES)(DIA)(INDU)

Here is the weekly ES Chart we've been discussing. Nothing has changed but for those who missed the original posts, here it is again -

Don't really know these blokes firsthand, but they seem to be upstanding and the price is well... FREE

so check it out

Hi everyone

Today's levels have been updated and can be downloaded from here.

The S/R numbers are in the black column, the MP, Pivots, Fibs, Simple Moving Averages and Summary Numbers are for confluence and information.

Always remember to use the numbers as a guideline for potential areas of high probability plays.

Always use a set up based upon your system to enter a trade
.
Good trading all

www.pivotfarm.com

Follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/pivotfarm

Cant hear the selling? Check out the TapeTweet room - The Audio Market Tape

Pivotfarm
P.O. Box 318
London, WC1N 3XX

I'm sure it won't be free forever so give it a go now and tell them CT sent you.
 

Emini Futures Trading - Tuesday October 27th, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)($YM)

Emini Futures Trading - Monday October 26th, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)($ES)($YM)

Ok..........
you're feeling poorly because you missed my B-day. I'm not saying that's wrong but if you want to set it all straight then give me  yourself, 5 minutes to reassess your own life. Small risk, huge payout. In trading terms I would call this a 1-5 Risk/Reward scenario.

Just watch the video and be a better person!

Emini Futures Trading / Prosperity for God's People - Friday October 23, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(INDU)

50 years ago today, 3000+ post Adam years later, God scooped me from my mother's womb and breathed His Life, into a human again.......

I would like to thank Him for life, my mother for being pro-life, and my wife for still being in my life after 29 years.

Through the ups and downs, the heaven and hell, the good, the bad, and the ugly, I would......

Change Everything!

I would sit up straight and pay attention in school.
I would always respect my elders.
I would never smoke, drink, or do drugs.
I would never do drugs. (that deserved repeating)
I would never lie. (which could cancel out the preceding two lines)
I would never cheat.
I would never steal.
I would never covet my neighbor's ass.
I would never worship other Gods.
I would never commit adultery. (see neighbor above)
I would never forsake the Sabbath.
I would never take my Father's name in vain.

But I can't change everything. In fact, I can't change anything.
As Popeye would say, "I Yam what I yAm"

Now don't be sad, this is where it gets really good, awesome in fact.

Even though I'm guilty of all the above, I'm forgiven.
And because I'm forgiven, I've learned to forgive.

What a marvelous birthday present.......learning to forgive.
A miraculous gift I can share with everyone.
Just as one candle lights 10,000 and is never diminished,
I have a gift that will actually increase each time I share it.

Forgiveness stands as a solitary candle in a world of judgment. 

Light in a Dark World.

On my 50th birthday, my request is that you place one candle on my cake.

Find one person, one thing, one memory, one experience, one boss, one co-worker, one relative, just one...
Just pick one..........
And forgive them, or it, or whatever.
It may be tough, at first....
but the world will become a brighter place,
and you will be set FREE!

"Now who's the light of the world?"

Yes You Are!
Yes He Still Is!


I'm just saying.......

Emini Futures Trading / Prosperity for God's People - Wednesday October 21, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(INDU)

Emini Futures Trading - Tuesday October 20th, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(INDU)

Emini Futures Trading - Fearless Town Hall Part 2

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)(SPX))($ES)



Fearless Town Hall with Max Lucado | 2 of 2
from UpWords Ministries on Vimeo.

Gold Bricks Gutted And Filled With Tungsten / Goldman Sachs And That Old Black Magic

(GLD)
 

Blight on Humanity Addendum

Thursday, 15 October 2009
By: Rob Kirby

Earlier this week, I wrote about possible “incongruities” in the gold bar registry of GLD. Specifically, here is what has happened to the GLD bar list which is published each Friday at approximately 4:30 pm EST. An alert reader I communicate with [who shall remain anonymous] has been documenting the length of the published GLD bar list:

- on Friday, Sept. 25 – the list was 1,381 pages long

- on Friday, Oct. 2 – the list was 208 pages long

- on Friday, Oct. 9 – the list was 195 pages long

- then, on Wednesday, Oct. 14 – after questions were being raised about the strange machinations with the bar list in chat rooms on the internet – the list was back up to 855 pages long

Something TRULY stinks here. No explanation has been offered for the DRAMATIC swings in this list. Where gold is concerned nothing happens by accident.

How Precious is Settled in London:

Loco London clearing is the daily paper unallocated transfers between London clearers; the transfers of gold and silver only across accounts held between clearers for their own accounts and third parties; and, as mentioned earlier, the clearing out of Zürich for the platinum group metals. It avoids security risk and the cost of physical movement of bullion; has standard market practices…
[However] Both allocated and unallocated account agreements are available. There are allocations for credit purposes, bilateral credit agreements between clearers, and London good delivery….

Some short definitions: an unallocated account is an account where specific bars are not set aside, and the customer has a general entitlement to the metal. This is the most convenient, cheapest, and most commonly used method of holding metal. The allocated account, on the other hand, is an account opened when a customer requires metal to be physically segregated, and this needs a detailed list of weights and assays….

To Summarize:
- GLD gold bullion inventory is principally held in London
- I’ve already written about some large [allocated] physical transactions that were settled last week in London under VERY strange circumstances indicative of a shortage of physical gold bullion for good delivery.
- At the same time, significant irregularities appeared in the GLD bullion bar list

Conclusion:
- is the correlated timing of these unusual events a coincidence???? Could GLD inventory have been utilized to effect these physical settlements, which in turn, would have required the “sanitization” or doctoring of the GLD bar list to avoid MANY obvious, easily detectable, duplications of bar numbers?

I discussed these irregularities with a very informed source [the same one who informed me of specific [allocated] trades settled last week] and the reply I received was as follows:

“What can I tell you that you don't already know?

They are all scrambling big time since a number of large interests have demanded audits. Independent auditors are NOW descending onto the various vaults to verify, validate and certify.

They can move this as many times in circles as they like to try to fool people.

In an Asian depository they’ve found “Good Delivery” bricks that had been gutted and filled with tungsten.

Soon, there will be xxxx hitting the fan all over place.”

These circumstances suggest that a VERY REAL physical short squeeze is in progress RIGHT NOW and a gang of fraudsters from “fiat-crack-houses” [Central Banks] are attempting to finesse their losing over-sold hand in an elaborate Three-card Monty. With reports of independent physical audits now being conducted and mysterious happenings with GLD’s bar list – GLD has NEVER looked more suspect.


Goldman Sachs Magic Trick

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Emini Futures Trading - Fearless Town Hall

(QQQQ)(DIA)(GLD)(SPY)(QID)


Fearless Town Hall with Max Lucado | Part 1 of 2
from UpWords Ministries on Vimeo.

"Paying off debt is like dying.
You try to put it off as long as you can.

But nobody runs an open tab forever." 

Obama Poised to Cede US Sovereignty 

Does Size Really Matter? 

Most people think that it's a big world we live in. Well these pictures may give you some idea of the size of our planet in the whole universe. The final picture of the sun is particularly amazing.

The Official CFRN Big Picture "What If?"

I could not share this but that would just be wrong..............

Emini Futures Trading - Why Are You Afraid?

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(INDU)

For God has not given us a spirit of fear, but of power and of love and of a sound mind.


Fearless Intro: Why Are You Afraid? from UpWords Ministries on Vimeo.

Everybody I know says they need just one thing
And what they really mean is that they need just one thing more

I don't want to lose the eternal for the things that are passing
'Cause what will I have when the world is gone
If it isn't for the love that goes on and on
Rich Mullins via Chris B

An elder Native American was teaching his grandchildren about life. He said to them, "A fight is going on inside me.. it is a terrible fight and it is between two wolves. One wolf represents fear, anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego.

The other stands for joy, peace, love, hope, sharing, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, friendship, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith." "This same fight is going on inside you, and inside every other person, too", he added.

The Grandchildren thought about it for a minute and then one child asked his grandfather, "Which wolf will win?"

The old Cherokee simply replied... "The one you feed."

How did JPMorgan earn so much money in such a bad economy?

We begin with a bit of skepticism. After all, we know consumers aren't borrowing. Consumer credit is going down. So they can't be making money there. And we know businesses aren't expanding, so they can't be making money by lending to corporations either.

Wait a minute. JPMorgan is a bank, right? Don't banks make money by lending money? Yes...that's what we thought. Then who is JPMorgan lending to?

The only net borrower is the government.

The Financial Times confirms that Morgan's "US consumer businesses continued to bleed, with its credit card unit losing $700 million in the quarter and its retail bank...barely breaking even." It wrote off $7 billion in uncollectible consumer loans - more than twice as much as last year.

Its mortgage group lost money too. And it surely didn't make any money helping US business build new factories and expand payrolls.

So what does that leave? All the components of the business that have to do with the real economy are losing money or barely breaking even. What's left?

The news reports attribute the huge profits to "trading." But trading is a broad category. And our guess is that if you look more closely you will find that JPMorgan made its money the old fashioned way - by ripping off the government.

'You mean, JPMorgan took the feds' money and now is showing huge profits because it is just lending money back to the people they got it from? '

Yes. But not only that. They're also probably speculating on gold, oil and stocks...along with everyone else. The feds' money has pushed all these speculative trades into profit.

'And now, they're going to pay themselves big bonuses, aren't they?'

Yes. The papers tell us, "bonuses explode on Wall Street to a new record."

'So, then...when the next crisis comes...they won't have any money in the banks, will they?'

Nope.

'So they'll have to get bailed out again.'

Yep.

'But maybe the next time the feds will wise up and just let them go broke.'

Not a chance. Wall Street has plenty of friends in the highest places in Washington. A report in today's media tells us that "Geithner Aides Reaped Millions Working for Banks, Hedge Funds." The aides earn about $150,000 for their government work. On the side, they advise the financial firms they're supposed to be regulating, and get paid millions.

Such a nice relationship. They make sure Wall Street prospers - even when it does stupid things. Wall Street makes sure they prosper - even when they advise the government to do stupid things. And when their gig is over in Washington they go back to Wall Street where they earn millions more. America's centers of political and financial power have a cozy little game going. It won't end any time soon. It's too profitable for both of them.

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

TRIN Indicator – Oscillator Reaches +174

Posted: 14 Oct 2009 09:23 PM PDT

Lot of email requests for an update after Wednesday’s Emini action. I sense an anxiousness to get Short or decide whether to stay with Short positions already taken.
Remember, market tops always take longer to form than market bottoms – and we just made a new high. So we need to see weakness and then a re-test first – and that’s if we just saw the high.
This rally is littered with commentators calling the top too early – including me with the weekly Hilbert Sine Wave turn at 920. I’ve learned my lesson.

TRIN Indicator (Emini daily)

The Better TRIN Oscillator has now reached +174. Overbought (obviously). If we see profit taking tomorrow this Oscillator will probably turn down. The Better TRIN Systems will signal profit taking and an initial Short position. That’s if we see profit taking.

Hilbert Sine Wave Indicator (Emini daily)

Hilbert Sine Wave is yet to cross. We then also need to see price weakness for a cyclical turn ("End of Trend" warning signal) to be confirmed.

Volume Indicator (Emini daily)

This is the chart that has me most concerned. We have not seen large volume profit taking at the highs. The largest volume has been Professionals buying on panic selling by Amateurs. And I don’t think the Pro’s have had enough time to distribute their Long positions yet. However, they were selling into the close on Wednesday – and so that might be the first step.
Good luck with your Emini trading.

Emini Futures Trading - Are You Making Money?

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(DJIA)

Well are you?
I've sat in this chair for a number of years now. I've seen a lot, heard a lot, experienced a lot. Quite frankly, I'm disappointed. Perhaps I travel in the wrong circles, but I have yet to meet the man who retired wealthy on his investments. For the purpose of this discussion I will include "short term investments, i.e. day trading" as an investment. Let me say it again for clarity, "I have yet to meet the man who retired wealthy on his investments." Does that mean it doesn't happen? No, I'm sure it does, I just haven't met any of them.

Am I saying people can't or don't make make money off their investments?(define investment) NO!
In fact I know some folks quite intimately who do just that. I also know exactly how they do it. In fact, I can tell you EXACTLY how they do it. And I will...

"Stocks?"
Nope
"Options?"
Nope
"T-Bills?"
Nope
"Real Estate?"
That's funny!

"Silly me, it must be Futures. That's all you ever talk about anymore, so that's how they do it. Right?"

No my friend, it appears that the only sure fire, guaranteed way to make big bucks in the market is YOU!

YOU are the greatest commodity on the face of the earth.

YOU!

And the good news for them is that in fair weather or foul,  good economy or bad, matters not, there is a never ending supply of the cheap and gullible YOU...........

They tell you you're paying for an education.
They ask  "How much would you pay for a college degree?"
And 6 months later you slink away broke and broken.

If I've written this correctly you are now salivating.
You're already reaching for that credit card.
Indicator
Oscillator
System
Matters not...
All I need do is set the hook.
Right?
Are you ready?

Sorry................
There is no pitch friend.

I know that's what you expect and perhaps even desire.
(Click Here) and embrace forever wealth.

Now don't get me wrong.....
I'm not done.
I may have only just begun.

Before CFRN there was Christian Traders. CT birthed CFRN. The original tag line of CT was and is -
"What does it profit a man to gain the whole world and lose his soul?" Jesus Christ

By the grace of God I will return to the original vision. I will cease to be a promoter and become a Toto.

Toto?

Yes, the little doggie that pulls back the curtain and exposes it all.

It's how we started.
It's how we won the Christian NetCast Peoples Choice Award in 2005.
It's how we'll end.

Stay tuned........

This is going to get very interesting, before it gets very ugly, before it wins another very fine award.

Won't you join us?

Blessings
CT

Emini Futures Trading - Tuesday October 13th, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(GLD)(NEM)($ES)

"Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul. "
- Jesse Livermore -

I Look Back Now and Wonder

Then one day out of the blue, the little red and green candles started to make sense. I saw patterns develop over and over in the same spots. I placed a trade and made a profit. But I had done this before. I removed the MACD from my charts. Placed another trade and made a profit. Maybe I am on to something. Removed the channel indicator that I stumbled across. Read more...

 Day Trading sounds like a glamorous, exciting career doesn't it?

Most visualize young men in crisp expensive suits, driving a
sports car, trading half days, making thousands of dollars a
month, and building fortunes by the time they're 30.

Ok, now for a reality check...

Picture this, a man in his late 40's or early 50's, has 2.5
kids in college, a mortgage, 2 car payments...sitting in
front of his computer, eating Rolaids, white knuckled with
that "deer in the headlights" look. "Pull the trigger? Don't
pull the trigger?"

The hard facts are that the majority of day traders fail.
Sad, but oh so true. Why do they fail? They don't have the
knowledge they need to compete with the big boys. They don't
have a consistent game plan. They make money in the morning
just to give it back in the afternoon. They try for a "home
run" and lose substantially, so they trade even bigger to
try to "make it back"...they lose even more and blow out
their account.

We have heard these stories time and time again. What's
really disappointing...these nightmares could have been
prevented!

How can you be a confident, consistent, successful day
trader? Learn a PROVEN method of trading...simple as that.

Mike has been trading for more than 27 years, the method he
uses is time tested and rock solid. There is no shelf life,
no expiration date. Doesn't matter what time frame, doesn't
matter which market...doesn't matter the volatility. The
strategies Mike uses are based on something that never
changes, and that's human emotion.

This is your opportunity to find the light at the end of the
tunnel. Mike can't make you a successful trader, but he CAN
give you the tools that he uses everyday to be consistently
profitable.

Mike is going to show a handful of traders EXACTLY how he's
been successfully trading for more than a quarter of a
century. Mike is going to share with you, trader to trader,
the strategies he uses everyday to gain an unfair advantage
over other traders.

You can't afford *not* to get the trading education that you
need to be profitable. This is a commitment to yourself,
this is a commitment to your trading, this is a commitment
that you can believe in...

There are only 4 spots left...register now!

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Latest Gold News

NY Time

Gold At Record As Dollar Slips, Crude Tops $74  Wall Street Journal, Oct 13 2009 6:38PM

ECB-Gold reserves drop by 2 mln euros in week  Yahoo Finance, Oct 13 2009 10:30AM

Solitario Exploration boosts bid for Metallic Ventures  Reuters, Oct 13 2009 10:33AM

DJ Taiwan Ctrl Bank Gov:Can Study Increasing Gold In FX Reserves  Individual.com, Oct 14 2009 12:06AM

Gold scores record peak above $1,068  Malaysian Mirror, Oct 13 2009 11:56PM

Gold prices hit record highs as dollar slips further  Reuters India, Oct 13 2009 11:55PM

Barrick Gold to issue US$1.25 billion in note...  Canadian Business Magazine, Oct 13 2009 11:45PM

Gold hovers near record highs as dollar slides Reuters, Oct 13 2009 11:40PM

Emini Futures Trading - Gold Hits Historic Highs / Friday October 9th, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)(GLD)(DIA)(NEM)

For 7 years on the Net and the last 4 years on the radio we have pounded the table in regards to Gold. Just as we warned of the collapse in real estate, we forewarned the importance of owning both Gold and Silver. To those who heard and heeded, congratulations. To those who didn't, the good news is -
You can still get in!
90% of my personal portfolio is in 1 stock.
Just 1.
(learn more)

The Tiny Gold Market

(So little gold at $1000/oz. for China, Germany, or Oil nations!)

Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, October 9th, 2009

There is very little understanding of the relative size of the gold market, let alone the silver market.

In the gold market, the IMF has continued to "threaten" to sell 400 tonnes of gold, about once or twice a year, for the past ten years, to help "relieve the poverty" (yeah, right) of indebted nations who generally produce gold, and would actually be benefited by a higher gold price, not a lower gold price. This always results in a flurry of news stories, and usually panic among gold investors who are on leverage, who know next to nothing.

You never hear about how China actually was buying 500 tonnes over the last 8 years.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN2441409020090424

You never hear in the popular news how China wants to buy $80 billion more gold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc2Bv-dJDLk

That would use only a tiny fraction of China's $2131 billion of foreign exchange reserves.
http://tinyurl.com/3dhwvq

$80 billion in gold, at $1000/oz., is 80 million oz., which, divided by 32,151 oz/tonne, is 2488 tonnes, which is almost exactly the same amount as the annual production of all the world's gold mines.
http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production.htm

You never hear that China has so many dollars that they want to buy all the world's annual gold mining production, as a small and tiny diversification, for years to come. But I just provided all the proof for that statement.

You never hear in the mainstream press how Germany swapped about 3000 tonnes of gold with the US, and wants their gold back, which again, is just over the entire world annual gold mining production.
http://tinyurl.com/ylsauwm

You never hear that if the oil producing nations decided to sell oil for gold, what that would mean for the gold price.

Well, actually, we did hear something similar to that this week, a "vicious rumor" that led to the current $50 rally in the gold price. (more)

Gold Touches a New Record

By Bill Bonner

10/08/09 London, England

“Gold continues to climb…stoked by inflation worries,” says a headline in the International Herald Tribune.

Yesterday, it touched a new record – $1,050 – even as the dollar rose, oil slumped under $70 and stocks dipped very slightly.

Well, what do you expect? The United States added $1 trillion to its monetary base in the last year or so. The federal government is running a deficit of $1.7 trillion this year. And along comes Barack Obama with an idea to stimulate employment – spend more money! This time, Obama’s plan is a kind of ‘Cash for Workers’ program…in which businesses get a tax credit for hiring new employees.

Gold investors must think the new program will be the straw they’ve been waiting for. Government has piled on bales of costly new initiatives on this poor camel’s back. Still, he stands up straight.

So, is gold at $1,000 a bargain…or a trap? Or both.

We begin by asking: where’s the inflation? We don’t see any inflation. What we do see is deflation.

Barclays Capital says gold could go to $1,500. We don’t know where they got that number. It could go to $15,000 for all we know. Or it could go down, too.

Our guess is that it will go down enough scare the bejesus out of speculators. Then, it will soar.

But, hey, we’re just guessing – along with everyone else.

Sooner or later gold is probably headed to the lunatic moon. We’re sticking with the yellow metal. We don’t want to miss that ride.

But when?

Ah…we’re going to stick our necks out and say “eventually.” We’re sure we’re right about this. Just don’t ask us for more precision; we have none. And what bothers us is that between eventually and now there could be a lot of time and a lot of trouble. And one trouble that could come up pretty fast is another crash in the stock market.

If the stock markets of the world take another dive…like they did last year…gold will probably go down with them. Not as much, but down nonetheless. So, if we were speculating…we’d probably be short gold and short stocks too. We’d bet against bonds too – even though we think they will probably go up in the short run. The smart, long term money – in both stocks and bonds – is probably on the short side.

Here at The Daily Reckoning, however, we never speculate – except in print. As to ideas about how the world works we have plenty. We speculate daily. As to gold, stocks and commodities, we prefer to hold onto our long-term positions.

What seems fairly sure to us is that this recovery is a fraud. It’s a mountebank and a flimflam.

And now approaches a moment of truth – earnings announcements. Stock market investors bid up shares on the theory that sales and profits would rise. Will they? We don’t think so.

We think sales are going to be disappointing…and earnings will be even worse. If so, we’ll see analysts begin to change their expectations…and announce that the results are “not as bad as expected.”

If we get a few really bad announcements – with results much worse than expected – it could sink the rally. Then again, if we’re surprised with exceptionally good reports…it could send the market in the other direction.

Good results will also cause us here at The Daily Reckoning to question our position. Maybe the economy is not sinking into a chronic depression, after all. Could we be wrong?

Ha ha…are you kidding, dear reader? Of course, we can be wrong. When we were younger we were uncertain about things. But now that we’re older, we’re not so sure.

Here is what we’re pretty sure about:

1) The credit cycle has topped out.

Americans are saving – think of the poor boomers, 10 years older but not a penny richer than they were in 1999. Stocks have gone nowhere but down in real terms. Houses hit a high in 2006…now, they’re off 30%…and still going down. Jobs? Forget it…there are already 15 million people who are unemployed and about 200,000 more every month. The job market is unlikely to recover for another 6-13 years – that is, after many of the boomers are retired! And if you are lucky enough to have a job, you’re not likely to get a raise…not with so much spare capacity in the labor market.

Under those conditions, a consumer boom is very unlikely.

2) We know that a period of credit contraction is deflationary.

Prices go down as demand falls. Buyers disappear from the malls that once knew them, while the factories that produce stuff grow dusty and quiet.

But we know the feds hate falling prices. And we know they are taking extraordinary actions to get prices to go up. So far, their efforts have been a giant flop. Prices are falling in the United States at the fastest pace since the ’50s.

Most of the feds’ efforts have been directed towards keeping the bankers fat and happy…and getting themselves a bigger share of America’s output. They took funds designed to relaunch the US economy, for example, and used them to buy themselves a big position in the auto industry, the financial industry and the insurance industry.

3) We know too, by the way they conducted themselves in those affairs, that the feds have become much more aggressive…throwing their weight around in the private sector as never before.

What we don’t know is how this affects markets in the short term. So far, consumer prices are falling, but the stock market is enjoying a bounce. It is a real, new bull market? Or just a bear market bounce? It is probably a bear market bounce…but it has been going for long enough that we have to at least consider the idea that it is a genuine bull market. That’s why the numbers from this quarter are important…they’ll tell us if the companies themselves are expanding earnings fast enough to justify investors’ optimism.

4) We know too that there is a whole lot of ’flation going on.

We are just unable to tell you what kind of ’flation it is. The monetary base is way up – it increased by $1 trillion in the last 12 months. But the money-in-circulation has barely budged. The feds give the banks overnight loans at practically zero interest. Then, the banks lend it back to the feds at nearly 4% more.

What happens to it then? Well, what do you think…it is wasted on typical federal government scams and humbugs.

So, relatively little of the money actually ends up in the consumer economy. And so, we can’t tell you whether the ’flation will have a ‘in’ prefix or a ‘de’ prefix. They’re just two letters. But they will make a whole alphabet of difference to the economy and to your investments.

5) Most important, we are dead sure that the people running America’s financial policies are jackasses.

We say that with all due respect, which is probably not much. They have only one idea – and it is a bad one. They think economies are improved by more consumer spending. They don’t seem to care why consumers occasionally cut back on their spending. All that matters to them is finding ways to get the consumer shopping again. So they try tax cuts and government spending…bailouts and boondoggles…zero interest lending and federal takeovers…cash for clunkers, cash for houses, cash for employees….

…trillions worth of claptrap and folderol. But what a nuisance! The fool consumer still won’t shop!

But they’re determined to keep trying. That’s why we can be pretty sure that, eventually, they’ll get inflation rates up. One way or another. And then, gold at $1000 will seem like an outrageous bargain.

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

A Bull in a Silver Shop
by The Mogambo Guru
Tampa Bay, Florida

"More than one-seventh of all the silver bullion 'thought to exist' in the whole world was suddenly bought up in less than a year, and yet the price of silver has been pounded down to less than 10 bucks an ounce?"


It's the Balance of Power, Stupid!
by Leon T. Hadar
Washington, DC

"...there is an eerie resemblance between the resistance of officials, lawmakers and pundits in London 1949 and that of their contemporary counterparts in Washington 2009 to adjust their nation's foreign policies to the changing global balance of power."


Greetings from Qatar!
by Chris Mayer
Doha, Qatar

" One headline story noted how 32,000 homes are about to come on the market next year, which is a big number to choke down in any city. Dubai had a huge property boom and now must suffer the flip side."


Inshallah, Build It And They Will Come
by Addison Wiggin
Dubai, United Arab Emirates

"Here in Dubai, there is little money from oil or gas, it's mostly trade, Western conglomerates setting up shop in a low tax jurisdiction and real estate. And, since the bust...debt."


Chronic Depression
by Bill Bonner
London, England

"The authorities still do not understand what is going on. They are used to fooling most of the people most of the time. They think they can dupe them again - with bailouts and boondoggles."


Is Santa Fe Now A Likely Future Takeover Candidate?

This is not a solicitation to buy Santa Fe Gold. It is a statement of the facts as we see them for your consideration. Whether you decide to invest in Santa Fe Gold may or may not make a difference to the stock, but it could make a big difference in your life, as it has already done for many others, if our belief becomes a reality: That Santa Fe will most likely ultimately be taken over at much higher prices than those of today and we have tried to outline the many compelling reasons as to why this may occur below, but you don't have to hear it from us.. The company already has an analyst buy rating of $3 per share: And that was before the two recent acquisitions, that have probably added at least another $2 per share to that target price, that is now gaining increasing coverage with rising gold prices.

And that's the point. Santa Fe is not only getting increasing coverage and recognition, it is delivering on all of its promises and all of its objectives thus far have not only been met, they have actually been exceeded and any time that happens with any company, it usually means that it represents a major buying opportunity that will likely have continuing surprises on the upside in the future. And the best part of it all might be in this instance you may not ever need to sell your stock as it just might be bought out from you in a takeover bid.

Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter Killing the Goose by John Mauldin October 9, 2009
In this issue: Killing the Goose What Were We Thinking? Let's Play Turn It Around Detroit, the Red Sox and the Yankees, and Traveling Too Much

Emini Futures Trading / Prosperity for God's People

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(SPX)

Don't Forget

To listen to the Podcast of today's show,
turn off the Live Stream using the controls on the Player.
Then click the headline -
Emini Futures Trading / Prosperity for God's People









Introduction to Market Profile
Free Webinar -
Saturday October 10th, 2009
1:00pm EST / 10:00am PST

Reserve your seat today!

TradeStalker's

"RBI Trading Camp"

Next Trading Camp Begins:

Sunday - October 25th

RBI Trading Camp is for Traders just like you,some with years of trading experience, others who are just starting out, all coming together for one common goal
...TO IMPROVE THEIR TRADING.

CFRN Discovers Page Trader and the S&P Messenger Pro

(QQQQ)(DIA)($ES)(SPY)(INDU)






We were waxing nostalgic today and as we wound our way through the CFRN archives we tripped over our very first interview with David Williams from PageTrader.

It was the day after Thanksgiving.
A Friday as I recall...
November the 24th, 2006 to be exact.

I was young, had ALL of my hair, weighed 30 lbs. less, and most of all, to bend the words of a great American - "I had a dream!"

Enjoy!

Learn To Trade The S&P 500 Emini From 27 Year Trading Veteran Mike Reed - "The Trade Stalker"

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(INDU)







Mike Reed has been a regular guest on CFRN for almost 4 years. This archived show was originally broadcast in 2006 and we dug it out of the archives for 2 very good reasons.

1. Mike is still the same great guy we met 4 years ago - Humble, Talented, Successful with a huge heart for helping others.
2. It's Trading Camp time!

TradeStalker's

"RBI Trading Camp"

Next Trading Camp Begins:

Sunday - October 25th

RBI Trading Camp is for Traders just like you, some with years of trading experience, others who are just starting out, all coming together for one common goal
...TO IMPROVE THEIR TRADING.

Many of you might be in the same shoes Mike was more than 20 years ago. He'd been trading for 6 years on his own, but it wasn't until he spent a week with his trading mentor, Dick Diamond, that his trading really turned around. Now with over 25 years of trading experience under his belt, Mike is helping other traders to kick their trading into high gear.

The knowledge you glean from the RBI Trading Camp, doesn't expire...won't become outdated...there is no limit on the shelf life of this information! Mike is teaching you his personal, time tested, rock solid trading strategies, methods that have worked for him *consistently* for years.

"RBI Trading Camp" is held via Hotcomm, and you will be able to attend from the comfort of your own home or office. Mike only accepts 8 traders into each Camp Week, keeping the camp size small ensures more individual help for each "camper".

Click here to learn more

Learn Market Profile

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(INDU)

Introduction to Market Profile

Free Webinar -
Saturday October 10th, 2009
1:00pm EST / 10:00am PST

Reserve your seat today!

Come join other traders interested in learning about the
"#1 Decision Tool" available to traders, as stated by Mark Douglas in his book, “the Disciplined Trader”. Ion Trades and The Drake will host a FREE webinar designed to introduce Market Profile Charts and their use as a decision tool.

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Market Profile™ is an analytical decision support tool for traders that reveals pricing patterns from any market as they develop. By effectively organizing price and time information, traders can see which price areas the market is accepting and which ones it is rejecting, and adjust their trading styles accordingly.

Emini Futures Trading / CME Group Changes Tick Reporting

(QQQQ)(SPY)(DIA)($SPX)($ES)

Our hearts, our prayers, and this song go out to our friend Michael Walz and his family.
"We Wait" After the Chase
(Click to listen)

Emini S&P Tick Chart Changes October 4th, 2009

If you use tick charts to trade e-mini S&Ps as I do, you will have noticed a dramatic increase in the speed with which your charting software produces tick bars on Monday and today from the speed that it produced the same size tick bars (i.e. 377-tick bars for me) on Friday.

I am writing to let you know that as of Sunday, October 4th, the CME Group enhanced the reporting of trades to provide more information at greater speed. For those of us who are tick bar chartists, the effect of this upgrade is to produce more ticks over the same price action than were produced before.

To offset the increased speed with which bars are being produced from today forward, I am using a larger tick bar to produce about the same number of bars over a given day as were produced prior to Monday. As I like to use Fibonacci numbers, I will probably be using a 987-tick bar as the replacement for my formerly trusty 377-tick bar.

I hope that this has been helpful.

On Wednesday morning, a friend and former mentoring trader, MJ, asked me to tell him the “truth” about the data/tick changes. Here is what I wrote:

As you ask an excellent question, I will give you the full answer as I know you can handle the truth!

The CME used to send out data that included the accurate price, the accurate volume, but, to save space (thereby increasing response speed), they would aggregate trades so if 40 contracts traded at exactly the same moment and two people sold 20 each and 8 people bought 5 each, the CME would send the data as 2 trades (counting only the trades of 20 + 20).

As of Monday, the CME is doing much less aggregation and, in the ideal, will send this 40 contract trade as 8 trades; thereby, separating the transaction into the actual number of trades that were produced.

This has the effect of making more ticks and, in so doing, building an x-tick bar faster than previously.

See, I knew you could handle the truth.

Wishing you success in your trading, Jeff

Keep your produce fresh - (seriously)

Emini Futures Trading - Tuesday October 6th, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(INDU)

Will Junior Gold Equities Experience +1,000% Returns Again?

Are you are of the opinion that the U.S. dollar is going to continue to weaken against other currencies? Are you of the opinion that we are going to have significant inflation in the next few years? If so, then we are going to see gold and silver doubling or tripling in price as a result. As such, it is imperative that you invest in either the stocks of the companies that mine the gold and silver and/or in the royalty companies that buy the gold and silver from mining companies at predetermined fixed prices. Better yet, much better in fact is that, wherever possible, you should purchase certain of the long-term warrants offered by some of the gold and silver mining and royalty companies as a means of realizing your +1,000% returns.

Why Buy Gold and/or Silver Mining/Royalty Stocks instead of Physical Gold or Silver? To Double Your Returns – or Possibly More!

If gold, for example, were to escalate considerably in price (i.e. to $2,000, $3,000, or even more) in the next few years it would have a significantly positive impact on the profitability of the companies who mine it and the royalty companies that buy it from marginal producers. For example, with gold priced at $1,000/oz., and the cost of production at perhaps $600/oz. the gross profit margin of gold mining companies would be 40.0%. If 2 years from now, however, gold were to increase to $2,000 and the cost of production were to increase by only 20% to $720/oz. then the mining companies’ gross profit margins would have gone up from $400/oz. to $1280/oz. or 220%!

That’s called leverage and historically, in a rising market, the ratio for gold and silver mining/royalty shares vs. physical gold ranges from about 2.5:1 for large-cap companies (currently 2.6:1 YTD for HUI companies according to the table above) on average to as much as 6:1 for gold and silver mining/royalty companies (currently 3.9:1 YTD according to the Gold/Silver Companies with Warrants Index), on average and even 10:1 in exceptional circumstances for certain truly outstanding performers. All the more reason for you to do your due diligence to find and invest in those gold and silver mining and/or royalty companies with the right mix of capable management, strong financing, major resources and geographically and politically well-located properties and reap the major benefits of such a surge in the future price of gold and silver.

Why Buy the Warrants instead of the Stock of Certain Gold/Silver Mining and Royalty Companies? To Further Double Your Returns – or More!

For those of you who are prudent enough to do your homework and buy the right long-term warrants associated with the right gold and silver mining and/or royalty companies at today’s undervalued prices, your eventual returns would likely be 1.5 to 3 times greater (currently 1.4:1 YTD for the Precious Metals Warrants Index vs. the Gold/Silver with Warrants Index) on average than had you invested in their associated stocks. For companies whose stock prices go through the roof with monster gains that ratio could even be as high as 5:1.

That’s referred to as leverage-on-leverage or doubling-up on the leverage factor. The catch is, however, that you have to know whether or not the warrant associated with the stock you are interested in buying is the right warrant i.e. has a leverage/time value sufficiently high enough to justify its purchase given the anticipated appreciation in the price of the associated stock. For those who don’t have a clue what a warrant is, which companies have them, which have the best values, exactly how to go about buying them and which on-line brokers are sufficiently knowledgeable and capable of placing American, European, Australian and Asian orders (there are no problems for Canadians placing such orders with their brokers as most such securities are traded on their TSX or TSX Venture exchanges) check out the PreciousMetalsWarrants site below.

Will Junior Gold and Silver Equities Experience +1,000% Returns Again?

Using the above ratios the answer is: “Yes they can!” True, not all such companies with reap such returns but a few of the well chosen ones will once again see returns that most gold bugs dream about.

With what has happened in the world of late and what will be unfolding in the next 5 years or so those few investors who fully understand the impact the current economic situation is going to have on future inflation, the USD, interest rates, the stock market, physical gold and silver and gold and silver stocks and warrants in particular are going to be in the unique position of being the benefactors of currently unimaginable returns and wealth. All they need do, as I like to say, is “Just prepare and prosper!”

Thanks for the read.

Lorimer Wilson

(click the here to read the article in its entirety)

Emini Futures Trading - Monday October 5th, 2009

(QQQQ)(SPY)($SPX)($ES)(DIA)

Santa Fe Gold Proceeding with Construction of Summit Silver-Gold Project
Business Wire(Mon 9:35am

Latest Gold News

Weak dollar, oil turnaround lift US gold futures Reuters, Oct 5 2009 3:22PM

Australia approves Sino-Eldorado deal Mining Weekly, Oct 5 2009 8:42AM

AngloGold forms marine mining JV with De Beers Mining Weekly, Oct 5 2009 8:41AM

Contarian analysis of current gold market MarketWatch, Oct 6 2009 1:47AM

Gold may advance for the second day China Post, Oct 6 2009 1:46AM

Mark Hulbert: Contarian analysis of current gold market MarketWatch, Oct 6 2009 1:04AM

Mine of the Week: Boddington gold mine Australian Mining, Oct 6 2009 12:54AM

FIRB approves gold takeover Australian Mining, Oct 6 2009 12:54AM

Technical and Fundamental Analyses Gold Commitment of Traders Analysis -Strange Evolutions Goldessential, Oct 5 2009 9:23AM Spot Gold Technical Update Goldessential, Oct 5 2009 9:12AM

PageTrader Nightly Report - Oct 04, 2009

Emini Futures Trading / Prosperity for God's People - Friday October 2, 2009

(QQQQ)(DIA)(SPY)($ES)(DJIA)

Correction Warning

By Colin Twiggs
October 5, 0:05 a.m. ET (3:05 p.m. AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.

A number of major indexes now signal a secondary correction. The third quarter has ended, but risk remains elevated for the next two weeks. The Dow is also at the key resistance level of 10000, further increasing selling pressure. A general correction across most major markets is likely.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index is testing the upper channel border and resistance at 2500. Breakout would indicate the end of the correction of recent months — and that demand for bulk commodity shipping is recovering; a positive sign for commodity prices and resources stocks. Respect of 2500, however, would indicate another test of the lower channel; while failure of support at 1500 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

The RJ/CRB Commodities Index is retracing for yet another test of support at 250. Failure would warn that the secondary correction is not over. Follow-through below 245 would confirm that a test of primary support at 230 is likely. In the long term, recovery above 260 would indicate the start of a primary advance to 300*, while failure of support at 230 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

* Target calculation: 266 + ( 266 - 232 ) = 300

USA

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow breakout below its medium-term trend channel warns of a secondary correction. Expect a test of support at 8800/9000. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) reversal below its September low indicates selling pressure; a drop below zero would confirm the correction. In the long term, breakout above 10000 would offer a target of 12000*, while failure of support at 8000 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 - 8000 ) = 12000

Read More....

Gold Bullish Consolidation

In other commodities, gold has been consolidating around the 1000 level recently, threatening to take out the all-time high of 1,033 from early last year. If it holds the 1000 area and pushes through to new highs, the bull trend will continue, with a target in the 1300 area from the inverse head and shoulders pattern formed since early last year. A breakout in gold should also send silver much higher, with silver needing to more than triple to reach its all-time high. Adjusted for inflation, the all-time highs for both metals is much, much higher.


Since we posted that a week ago, gold has dipped below 990 4 times intraday, including today, only to close above that mark each time. Today's reversal off the morning dip and close above $1000 is very bullish action, and could portend a push to take out the all-time high.

Since Monday's close, the Dow has lost over 300 points, but gold has actually moved higher by over $10, even as the U.S. dollar has moved higher.

As long as the 1000 area holds, the gold action continues to look like a bullish consolidation. Traders can go long in the 1000 area with a well-defined risk using a stop below recent support (mid-980's intraday and 990 closing basis have been the recent support areas in December futures), giving a good risk/reward trading opportunity.
posted by GreatTrades # 7:01 PM 0 comments